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Statistical Basis for Predicting Technological Progress
Statistical Basis Predicting Technological Progress
2012/9/14
Forecasting technological progress is of great interest to engineers, policy makers, and private investors.Several models have been proposed for predicting technological improvement, but how well do t...
Predicting the amount individuals withdraw at cash machines using a random effects multinomial model
ATM cash withdrawal customer personal banking
2011/9/24
Retail finance organizations use data on past behaviour to make predictions for customer value management strategies. Random-effects models, where each individual has a behavioural pattern drawn from ...
Predicting New Customers' Risk Type in the Credit Card Market
Bayesian estimation customer relationship management market segmentation risk prediction
2011/8/30
Recent studies in marketing have consistently shown that all customers are not equally profitable. In the credit card business, all customers are not equally risky. When a customer misses one payment ...
On Credit-Spread Slopes and Predicting Bank Risk
constructing credit-spread curves credit-spread slopes bank risk
2011/8/28
We examine whether bank credit-spread curves, engendered by subordinated debt, would help predict bank risk. We extract credit-spread curves for each bank each quarter and analyze the predictive prope...
Predicting economic market crises using measures of collective panic
Predicting panic notably nervousness
2011/3/23
Predicting panic is of critical importance in many areas of human and animal behavior, notably in the context of economics. The recent financial crisis is a case in point. Panic may be due to a specif...
Modelling and predicting labor force productivity
Modelling predicting labor force productivity
2010/10/18
Labor productivity in Turkey, Spain, Belgium, Austria, Switzerland, and New Zealand has been analyzed and modeled. These counties extend the previously analyzed set of the US, UK, Japan, France, Ital...
A general "bang-bang" principle for predicting the maximum of a random walk
Bernoulli random walk Brownian motion optimal prediction ultimate maximum stopping time convex function
2010/11/2
Let (Bt)0tT be either a Bernoulli random walk or a Brownian motion with drift, and let Mt := max{Bs : 0 s t}, 0 t T. This paper solves the general optimal prediction problem sup 0T E[f(MT...