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The Soverato flood in Southern Italy:performance of global and limited-area ensemble forecasts
Soverato flood Southern Italy global and limited-area ensemble forecasts
2009/11/12
The predictability of the flood event affecting Soverato (Southern Italy) in September 2000 is investigated by considering three different configurations of ECMWF ensemble: the operational Ensemble Pr...
An efficient nonlinear cardinal B-spline model for high tide forecasts at the Venice Lagoon
nonlinear cardinal B-spline model high tide forecasts Venice Lagoon
2009/11/9
An efficient class of nonlinear models, constructed using cardinal B-spline (CBS) basis functions, are proposed for high tide forecasts at the Venice lagoon. Accurate short term predictions of high ti...
Combination of different types of ensembles for the adaptive simulation of probabilistic flood forecasts:hindcasts for the Mulde 2002 extreme event
adaptive simulation probabilistic flood forecasts extreme event
2009/10/30
Flood forecasts are essential to issue reliable flood warnings and to initiate flood control measures on time. The accuracy and the lead time of the predictions for head waters primarily depend on the...
SNOWMELT-RUNOFF MODEL FOR STREAM FLOW FORECASTS
SNOWMELT-RUNOFF MODEL STREAM FLOW FORECASTS
2009/10/29
Following the development of rainfall-runoff models the attention of the
international hydrologic program is now increasingly focused on the snowmelt-
runoff. The present simple model is based on ta...
Snowmelt Runoff Models for Operational Forecasts
Snowmelt Runoff Models Operational Forecasts
2009/10/27
Remote sensing is changing the approach in snowmelt runoff modelling. Instead
of a simulated snow cover, the areal extent of the real snow cover can be
periodically evaluated. Adaptation of depletio...
Attempting Flow Forecasts of the Indus River,Pakistan Using Remotely Sensed Snow Cover Data
Flow Forecasts Indus River Snow Cover Data
2009/10/27
Recent developments in collection and interpretation of remotely sensed back
radiation data from the earth surface obtained by satellites has made it possible
to readily delineate areas covered by s...
Cascading model uncertainty from medium range weather forecasts (10 days) through a rainfall-runoff model to flood inundation predictions within the European Flood Forecasting System (EFFS)
Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation weather forecasts uropean Flood Forecasting System
2009/5/18
The political pressure on the scientific community to provide medium to long term flood forecasts has increased in the light of recent flooding events in Europe. Such demands can be met by a system co...
Precipitation forecasts and their uncertainty as input into hydrological models
rainstorms European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
2009/5/18
Torrential streams and fast runoff are characteristic of most Slovenian rivers and extensive damage is caused almost every year by rainstorms affecting different regions of Slovenia. Rainfall-runoff m...
Clustering of heterogeneous precipitation fields for the assessment and possible improvement of lumped neural network models for streamflow forecasts
rainfall-runoff Clustering
2009/5/13
This work addresses the issue of better considering the heterogeneity of precipitation fields within lumped rainfall-runoff models where only areal mean precipitation is usually used as an input. A me...
Verification tools for probabilistic forecasts of continuous hydrological variables
hydrological variables Verification tools
2009/5/8
In the present paper we describe some methods for verifying and evaluating probabilistic forecasts of hydrological variables. We propose an extension to continuous-valued variables of a verification ...
Evaluation of bias-correction methods for ensemble streamflow volume forecasts
streamflow volume forecasts bias-correction methods
2009/5/7
Ensemble prediction systems are used operationally to make probabilistic streamflow forecasts for seasonal time scales. However, hydrological models used for ensemble streamflow prediction often have ...
The benefit of high-resolution operational weather forecasts for flash flood warning
weather forecasts flash flood warning
2009/5/4
In Mediterranean Europe, flash flooding is one of the most devastating hazards in terms of loss of human life and infrastructures. Over the last two decades, flash floods have caused damage costing a ...
Comparison of data-driven methods for downscaling ensemble weather forecasts
statistical downscaling model evolutionary polynomial regression medium range forecast
2009/4/29
This study investigates dynamically different data-driven methods, specifically a statistical downscaling model (SDSM), a time lagged feedforward neural network (TLFN), and an evolutionary polynomial ...
Uncertainty analysis of hydrological ensemble forecasts in a distributed model utilising short-range rainfall prediction
rainfall prediction short-range
2009/4/28
Advances in mesoscale numerical weather predication make it possible to provide rainfall forecasts along with many other data fields at increasingly higher spatial resolutions. It is currently possib...
The european flood alert system EFAS–Part 2：Statistical skill assessment of probabilistic and deterministic operational forecasts
European Flood Alert System Joint Research Centre
2009/4/27
Since 2005 the European Flood Alert System (EFAS) has been producing probabilistic hydrological forecasts in pre-operational mode at the Joint Research Centre (JRC) of the European Commission. EFAS ai...